The primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire have recently concluded, with Mitt Romney winning both. It?s quite probable now that Romney will be the person facing Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election.Both Iowa and New Hampshire have provided detailed exit polls of the Republican electorate. These paint a good picture of the coalition that Romney is assembling.Of course, exit polls are notoriously unreliable. If exit polls were trustworthy, President John Kerry would just be completing his second term right now. Any exit poll thus ought to be taken with an enormous grain of salt.Nevertheless, there are some patterns that are appearing pretty consistently in the exit polls of the Republican primaries. These are large enough to be of some note.�Romney?s support increases steadily as a voter?s age increases.�Similarly, support for Romney increases steadily as income increases.�Very conservative voters are not fans of Romney.�Neither are born-again Christians. Which is not to say that their support is nonexistent; plenty of born-again Christians are still voting for Romney.�Those with college degrees appear slightly more disposed to voting for Romney.�Similarly, so are Catholics.There is one final pattern which the exit polls don?t show, but which also appears consistently in the results: rural voters do not like Romney. He has done the worst in the rural parts of Iowa and New Hampshire. It will be of interest to note whether this pattern prevails in South Carolina.Not all of these patterns occurred in the last 2008 Republican primaries. During 2008, for instance, very conservative voters gradually became the strongest supporters of Romney. In fact, while there are great similarities between the voters Romney is winning now and those he won in 2004, there are also substantial differences. These are fascinating enough to be the subject of another, much more detailed, post.Nor should one expect all these patterns to hold throughout the primary season. This is particularly true with respect to religion. In 2008 Catholics were more likely than Protestants to vote for Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire. In later states such as California and Florida, however, Protestants were more favorable to Romney than Catholics (this was true even counting only white Catholics and white Protestants). Why this is so is somewhat of a mystery.There is one very important consideration which has not appeared yet: race. So far, the voters in the 2012 Republican primary have been overwhelmingly white. Asians and blacks do not vote in Republican primaries in numbers large enough to be counted by exit polls. Hispanics, however, do. In 2008 Romney won 14% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, compared to the 31% he took statewide; he failed to break single digits amongst Cubans. It will be very revealing to see whether Romney can do better than that this year.Implications for the General ElectionRomney appears to do best in the more traditional wing of the Republican Party. His support is concentrated amongst the wealthier, more urbane voters in the party ? the part of the party that is commonly represented by the sophisticated businessman. This, I know, will come as a shock to everybody who has been following politics these past few years.During the general election, Romney will probably do well in places filled with people of the above description. These include areas such as suburban Philadelphia and the northern exurbs of Atlanta. He may struggle to raise much excitement amongst the rural evangelical crowd, the red-hot conservatives who in bygone days voted loyally Democratic. Unfortunately for the president, these voters probably loathe Obama more than any other segment of the electorate.Probably most useful for a political analyst is the fact that Romney?s support increases in proportion to a voter?s wealth, age, and closeness to a major urban center. These are things about Romney?s coalition which political analysts haven?t known about before (especially the facts about voter income and age).It will be interesting to see if Romney?s coalition remains the same throughout the next few primaries, or whether it changes. Indeed, Romney?s coalition is actually somewhat different from the one he assembled in the 2008 Republican primaries. The next few posts will compare the exit polls from those primaries and those from the current primaries.They will examine:Iowa--inoljt�
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Promises, Promises: President Obama?s NDAA Signing Statement
This time last year, President Obama responded to the 2011 National Defense Authorization Act with a signing statement. Objecting to the law's restrictions on the transfer of Guantanamo detainees to the U.S. for trial or to their home countries, the president promised: "My Administration will work with the Congress to seek repeal of these restrictions, will seek to mitigate their effects, and will oppose any attempt to extend or expand them in the future." (My emphasis).
This past New Year's eve, President Obama signed the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA. In doing so, he extended the Guantanamo transfer restrictions, while also codifying the indefinite detention without trial of suspected terrorists. In the statement he issued with that signature, he said:
"I have signed this bill despite having serious reservations with certain provisions that regulate the detention, interrogation, and prosecution of suspected terrorists."
The pledge to seek repeal and oppose expansion of transfer restrictions had melted into a watery "reservation."
The president's Saturday statement also makes a new promise.
"I want to clarify that my Administration will not authorize the indefinite military detention without trial of American citizens. Indeed, I believe that doing so would break with our most important traditions and values as a Nation." Although the Obama Administration has consistently claimed the power to kill U.S. citizens without charge or trial in the war on terror, as it did to the radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, the president now promises not to imprison them.
Of course, a future president still might
This past New Year's eve, President Obama signed the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA. In doing so, he extended the Guantanamo transfer restrictions, while also codifying the indefinite detention without trial of suspected terrorists. In the statement he issued with that signature, he said:
"I have signed this bill despite having serious reservations with certain provisions that regulate the detention, interrogation, and prosecution of suspected terrorists."
The pledge to seek repeal and oppose expansion of transfer restrictions had melted into a watery "reservation."
The president's Saturday statement also makes a new promise.
"I want to clarify that my Administration will not authorize the indefinite military detention without trial of American citizens. Indeed, I believe that doing so would break with our most important traditions and values as a Nation." Although the Obama Administration has consistently claimed the power to kill U.S. citizens without charge or trial in the war on terror, as it did to the radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, the president now promises not to imprison them.
Of course, a future president still might
immigration Afghan Tropical Storm Gulf of Mexico jeremiah wright
?It?s time to free Bradley Manning?
http://current.com/shows/the-young-turks/videos/its-time-to-free-bradley-manning
Nineteen months after U.S. Army Pfc. Bradley Manning was first arrested, the first pre-trial hearings have finally begun. Manning faces 22 charges, including ?aiding the enemy? and the unauthorized release of half a million reports and cables ? even though, according to the American government, no one has been proved hurt by Wikileaks publishing the cables, and none were classified as top secret. ?He did our soldiers a world of good,? Cenk says. ?Time served is plenty enough time. Scooter Libby served no time and he betrayed a CIA agent. That caused real harm. Dick Cheney ? no time. Karl Rove ? no time. It?s time to free Bradley Manning.?
�
Nineteen months after U.S. Army Pfc. Bradley Manning was first arrested, the first pre-trial hearings have finally begun. Manning faces 22 charges, including ?aiding the enemy? and the unauthorized release of half a million reports and cables ? even though, according to the American government, no one has been proved hurt by Wikileaks publishing the cables, and none were classified as top secret. ?He did our soldiers a world of good,? Cenk says. ?Time served is plenty enough time. Scooter Libby served no time and he betrayed a CIA agent. That caused real harm. Dick Cheney ? no time. Karl Rove ? no time. It?s time to free Bradley Manning.?
�
illegal immigrant Pakistani The View gubernatorial candidate Howard Dean
Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event
Release Time:
For Immediate Release
Mandarin Oriental Hotel
Washington, D.C.
4:44 P.M. EST
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.) Thank you, everybody. Thank you. Please, please have a seat. It is wonderful to see all of you here this afternoon. Some old friends and some new friends.
As you know, I’m not here tonight just as President, but also as an adopted member of the Crow Nation. (Applause.) If my adoptive parents were here, I know what they’d say: Kids just grow up so fast. (Laughter.)
When I made that visit to Montana, I said that my job wasn’t just to win an election. It was to make sure that Washington started to focus on you. And I took that commitment seriously.
My commitment is deeper than our unique nation-to-nation relationship. It’s a commitment to making sure that we get that relationship right. Native Americans have to be full partners in our economy. Your children and your grandchildren have to have an equal shot at the American Dream.
And that’s why for three years in a row now, we’ve brought tribal leaders to Washington to develop an agenda that reflects your hopes and your aspirations and the needs of your tribes. I’ve appointed Native Americans to senior positions in my administration and in my White House. And many of you have had a chance to work with Kim Teehee, who does an extraordinary job coordinating our Native American affairs in the White House. (Applause.) And we’ve worked together to tackle some of the most difficult challenges facing Native American families.
And we should be proud of what we’ve done so far. But it should also sharpen our resolve to do even more.
As long as Native Americans face unemployment rates that are far higher than the national average, we’ve got more work to do. And I wake up every day focused on how do we restore America’s promise for all our people, including our first Americans.
So in my State of the Union address this week, I laid out my blueprint for an economy that’s built to last, an economy built on American manufacturing and American energy, skills for American workers and a return to American values of fair play and responsibility. And that’s what we’re fighting for.
And I want you guys to be full partners in that fight because I believe that one day we’re going to be able to look back on these years and say this was a turning point in nation-to-nation relations; that this was turning point when the nations all across the country recognized that they were full partners, treated with dignity and respect and consultation; that this wasn’t just a side note on a White House agenda, but this was part and parcel of our broader agenda to make sure that everybody has opportunity.
And it’s also a moment when we build a strong middle class in Indian country. It’s not simply a ward but is able to marshal the resources to create its own agenda and its own destiny and its own economic development and its own businesses. That’s what we’re looking for.
We want new businesses and new opportunities to take root on the reservation. We want to stop repeating the mistakes of the past and begin building a better future -- one that honors old traditions and also welcomes every single Native American into the American Dream.
We’ve done some great work together -- whether it’s making sure that Indian Health was permanently extended and that we were putting additional resources to make sure that we’re picking up the health of Native Americans all across the country. Whether it’s an executive order that specifies our focus on education with all of your tribes, whether it’s making sure that we are working hard to allow the expansion of land in trust on behalf of nations to go further, we’ve made some significant progress. But we’ve got a lot more to do.
And I’m going to need all of you to continue to consult with us, to continue to work with us, continue to partner with us. I guarantee you that the work we’ve done over these first three years is not the end, it’s just the beginning.
And if you stick with me, I promise you guys I’m going to be sticking with you. All right, God bless you. Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.)
END
4:52 P.M. EST
For Immediate Release
Mandarin Oriental Hotel
Washington, D.C.
4:44 P.M. EST
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.) Thank you, everybody. Thank you. Please, please have a seat. It is wonderful to see all of you here this afternoon. Some old friends and some new friends.
As you know, I’m not here tonight just as President, but also as an adopted member of the Crow Nation. (Applause.) If my adoptive parents were here, I know what they’d say: Kids just grow up so fast. (Laughter.)
When I made that visit to Montana, I said that my job wasn’t just to win an election. It was to make sure that Washington started to focus on you. And I took that commitment seriously.
My commitment is deeper than our unique nation-to-nation relationship. It’s a commitment to making sure that we get that relationship right. Native Americans have to be full partners in our economy. Your children and your grandchildren have to have an equal shot at the American Dream.
And that’s why for three years in a row now, we’ve brought tribal leaders to Washington to develop an agenda that reflects your hopes and your aspirations and the needs of your tribes. I’ve appointed Native Americans to senior positions in my administration and in my White House. And many of you have had a chance to work with Kim Teehee, who does an extraordinary job coordinating our Native American affairs in the White House. (Applause.) And we’ve worked together to tackle some of the most difficult challenges facing Native American families.
And we should be proud of what we’ve done so far. But it should also sharpen our resolve to do even more.
As long as Native Americans face unemployment rates that are far higher than the national average, we’ve got more work to do. And I wake up every day focused on how do we restore America’s promise for all our people, including our first Americans.
So in my State of the Union address this week, I laid out my blueprint for an economy that’s built to last, an economy built on American manufacturing and American energy, skills for American workers and a return to American values of fair play and responsibility. And that’s what we’re fighting for.
And I want you guys to be full partners in that fight because I believe that one day we’re going to be able to look back on these years and say this was a turning point in nation-to-nation relations; that this was turning point when the nations all across the country recognized that they were full partners, treated with dignity and respect and consultation; that this wasn’t just a side note on a White House agenda, but this was part and parcel of our broader agenda to make sure that everybody has opportunity.
And it’s also a moment when we build a strong middle class in Indian country. It’s not simply a ward but is able to marshal the resources to create its own agenda and its own destiny and its own economic development and its own businesses. That’s what we’re looking for.
We want new businesses and new opportunities to take root on the reservation. We want to stop repeating the mistakes of the past and begin building a better future -- one that honors old traditions and also welcomes every single Native American into the American Dream.
We’ve done some great work together -- whether it’s making sure that Indian Health was permanently extended and that we were putting additional resources to make sure that we’re picking up the health of Native Americans all across the country. Whether it’s an executive order that specifies our focus on education with all of your tribes, whether it’s making sure that we are working hard to allow the expansion of land in trust on behalf of nations to go further, we’ve made some significant progress. But we’ve got a lot more to do.
And I’m going to need all of you to continue to consult with us, to continue to work with us, continue to partner with us. I guarantee you that the work we’ve done over these first three years is not the end, it’s just the beginning.
And if you stick with me, I promise you guys I’m going to be sticking with you. All right, God bless you. Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.)
END
4:52 P.M. EST
ethics charges washington bureaucrats John Kerry George Will George Bush
Wikipedia Leaves GoDaddy Over Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA)
Wikipedia no longer wants to be hosted by GoDaddy.com because the domain registrar has showed support for the Stop Online Piracy Act which Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales opposes. Ana Kasparian and Cenk Uygur discuss on The Young Turks.
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