A Flashback to Christopher Christie's Performance in the 2009 New Jersey Republican Gubernatorial Primary

Apparently a 2012 straw poll was held at a convention today in Virginia. Christopher Christie finished narrowly ahead of Governor Palin by what appears to be fewer than 10 votes. Palin did not attend the convention as she is speaking at two events in California tonight.One thing that continues to baffle me about the analysis of the 2012 presidential election is the idea that Christopher Christie would be a strong contender to win the 2012 Republican nomination. I would think one way to judge how someone would perform in a presidential primary is to look at how he or she has performed in past Republican primaries. If you accept that, then it's tough to see how one can come to the conclusion that Christie has a good shot at the 2012 Republican nomination given how he performed in the 2009 New Jersey Republican gubernatorial primary.In that race, Christopher's opponent was the hard-right, ultra-conservative Steve Lonegan. Christopher outspent Lonegan by an overwhelming margin. New Jersey's Republican electorate is also one of the most liberal Republican electorates in the country. The 2008 exit poll of the New Jersey Republican primary electorate shows that a majority of the primary voters believed abortion "should always or should mostly be legal." Fewer than 60% of the Republican primary electorate identified themselves as "conservative." The New Jersey Republican electorate is even more moderate than the Republican electorates in Alaska and Delaware, two Republican primary electorates that are already much more moderate than the average Republican primary electorate.Despite the fact that Christopher outspent Lonegan by a wide margin, one of the most liberal Republican electorates in the country still awarded Lonegan 42% of the vote. You would think given the moderate/liberal bent of the state's Republican electorate and the amount by which Christopher outspent Lonegan that Christopher would have won over 70% of the primary vote. You would think that given his financial and demographics advantage that Christopher would have won the primary by a two-to-one margin over a poorly-funded, hard-right opponent. His failure to do so suggests that Lonegan likely won conservative New Jersey Republican primary voters by a decent margin despite the fact that Christopher outspent him dramatically and the fact that the state's Republican electorate is much more liberal than nearly every other Republican electorate in the country.Given his mediocre/poor performance against a hard-right, ultra-conservative candidate that he outspent dramatically in a state with an extremely liberal Republican primary electorate, why would anyone expect Christopher to perform better when he's competing against much more mainstream and well-funded conservative candidates, such as Palin, in states with Republican electorates that are far more conservative than the New Jersey Republican electorate?

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