Gallup: GOP Has Double Digit Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

With the election four weeks from tomorrow, Gallup finally began employing a likely voter model in their sampling methodology. As was long expected, this significantly increased the Republican lead on the generic congressional ballot. Gallup used both a high-turnout model and a low-turnout model. Although the high-turnout model is not quite as favorable, in both cases the Republicans have a significant, double digit lead of 13-18%:PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios for likely voters.These initial estimates are based on interviews with more than 3,000 national adults, including more than 2,700 registered voters, and more than 1,800 adults who demonstrate a high probability of voting this fall, based on their answers to Gallup's standard likely voter questions that probe current voting intentions and past voting behavior.[...]For this initial estimate of those most likely to vote, Gallup has modeled a lower turnout estimate (40%, typical for recent midterm elections) and a higher turnout estimate. In both cases, the Republican share of the vote is above 50% and the Democratic share is 40% or less, underscoring the strong position in which the GOP would find itself were the election held today.Gallup has found Republicans, compared with Democrats, expressing higher levels of enthusiasm about voting and more thought given to the elections throughout 2010. It follows that models in which voting is restricted to those most likely to vote would show Republicans doing disproportionately well.[...]Within both likely voter pools, Republicans are highly likely to vote for the Republican candidate, and Democrats for the Democratic candidate. Independents in both likely voter models skew strongly toward the Republican candidate. Gallup has found independent registered voters consistently preferring Republican candidates throughout the campaign.Clearly a lot can change in the next 29 days, but at this point in time, things are looking very good for the GOP. The biggest concern is probably complacency.

oil spill democrates republicans radical left wing