It's Over: Joe Miller Still Leads Lisa Murkowski Even When Her Name is Included in the Poll

CNN/TIME finds Joe Miller still leading Lisa Murkowski even when her name is included in the poll.If Murkowski cannot get ahead of Miller even when pollsters include her name as an option, there's no way she'll ever be able to pull ahead as her name will not appear on the ballot in reality. Murkowski had previously effectively claimed that she would take the lead if her name was included in polling but her claims were proven false. Remember that Murkowski's name will not appear on the ballot on November 2nd.So even under the most favorable poll that Murkowski could have asked for, she's still trailing Joe Miller.Here are the crosstabs of the poll. Miller has a fifteen-point lead in the Anchorage Area/Mat-Su, a seventeen-point lead in Fairbanks, and a two-point lead in Anchorage over Murkowski.Murkowski is only competitive because she's winning 39% of Democrats and 41% of liberals. She's actually only beating Miller by three among independents. The problem for Murkowski is that the Alaska Democrat Party is fully behind its nominee and any support that he gains from Democrats and liberals will damage Murkowski's chances. The most reasonable conclusion to draw from this poll is that Murkowski is at her absolute ceiling considering that it's unlikely that she can win any of the conservatives/Republicans/independents that are voting for Miller right now. Even at her ceiling, the pro-abortion Murkowski is still trailing Joe Miller.

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