Sunday, November 7, 2010

Rasmussen Finds "Dead Heat Between" Romney, Palin, and Huckabee

Rasmussen finds a "dead heat" between Romney, Palin, and Huckabee in its most recent survey of 1,000 likely Republican primary voters. She has pretty much stayed the same since the last Rasmussen poll conducted of this race in October 2009 while Romney and Huckabee have dropped considerably.The crosstabs show that she has the highest "very favorable" rating of the three at 50% (Huckabee is at 43% while Romney is at 37%). She's winning among likely primary voters between the ages of 18-39 and likely primary voters who make between $20,000-100,000.I wouldn't be worried about this CNN poll because the poll it conducted was of all Republican and Republican-leaning independents. It is essentially assuming that around half of the country will be voting in our party's 2012 primary. In any event, the same CNN sample of all adults finds that her net favorable/unfavorable rating has improved by seven points since CNN's April poll, while the others did not show much improvement (and their unfavorables will likely rise because Democrats, liberals, and moderates comprise a disproportionate percentage of the adults who have not formed an opinion about them). She still maintains the best net favorable/unfavorable rating among Republicans.CNN's exit poll of people who actually voted last Tuesday found her leading in South Carolina and within 3 in Iowa. Keep in mind too that it's unlikely that many of the people who voted Tuesday will not be voting in a GOP primary in 2012.

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