(Note: I�strongly�encourage you to click the image links on this post when reading; they're essential to understanding what I'm saying.)
Mexico has recently elected as president Governor Enrique Pe�a Nieto. The handsome new president won 38.2% of the vote, 6.6% over Andr�s Manuel L�pez Obrador of the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Pe�a Nieto?s vote was also 12.8% over Josefina V�zquez Mota, from the right-wing National Action Party (PAN).
Here?s what happened:
Mexico?s North-South Divide
The map above indicates the states which each candidate won during the election. There?s a fairly strong characteristic for Pe�a Nieto to do worse as one goes south. The southern parts of Mexico are generally poorer, and left-wing candidate L�pez Obrador thus wins most of the southern states. The blue states are those which remained loyal to third-place� V�zquez Mota of the conservative PAN. The PAN is stronger in northern Mexico; for a better look a right-wing PAN coalition, take a look at the 2006 election.
Yet there are some major exceptions to this North-South divide. Some of the poorest states in southern Mexico actually voted for Pe�a Nieto. These include Chiapas and Yucat�n. Chiapas is famous for a 1994 uprising by indigenous Mexicans; Yucat�n is famous for its Mayan culture.
In fact, L�pez Obrador got 43.4% in Oaxaca but only 16.9% in Yucat�n. Both states are poor and more populated by indigenous Mexicans, albeit culturally very different. Still, one would expect L�pez Obrador to have run up the margins in places such as Yucat�n and Chiapas.
Cities and the Countryside
On the macro-scale, Pe�a Nieto did better in northern Mexico. On the micro-scale, within each state, he generally did better in the countryside.
Mexico?s three largest metropolitan areas are Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey.
Here?s how Pe�a Nieto did in Monterrey (located in the state Nuevo Le�n).
This map paints a fairly clear picture. Pe�a Nieto wins the rural areas outside of the main city, whereas V�zquez Mota sweeps the city itself.
Monterrey is located in northern Mexico, and the state-level results reflect that. V�zquez Mota ended up getting 39.8% of the state Nuevo Le�n, compared to Pe�a Nieto?s 33.2%. L�pez Obrador polled a poor 22.0%.
Let?s take a look at Guadalajara (located in the state Jalisco).
Pe�a Nieto does better in here, winning large parts of the city. Still, he loses some urbanized areas of Guadalajara.
Here?s a look at the overall state.
Pe�a Nieto?s rural strength is clearer here. He wins everywhere outside the main city. It?s also apparent that Pe�a Nieto dominated the state. He ended up taking 40.0% of the vote, to V�zquez Mota?s 32.2% and L�pez Obrador?s 22.6%.
How Mexico City Voted
20% of all the votes in the entire country were cast in Mexico City. Mexico City is divided into a Federal District and a state (named the State of Mexico). The Federal District takes in the downtown area, whereas the State of Mexico composes the northern suburbs.
As it turns out, Pe�a Nieto was Governor of the State of Mexico from 2005 to 2011. On the other hand, L�pez Obrador was Head of the Government of the Federal District from 2000 to 2005. Obviously, this produced two very strong and opposing home-town effects.
It appears that L�pez Obrador?s home-town effect was stronger. He took a thumping 52.9% in the Federal District, winning every district within.
This is actually somewhat surprising. A lot of Mexicans complained when L�pez Obrador blocked the main avenue of Mexico City for months after losing the 2006 election, alleging fraud. Nevertheless, L�pez Obrador still won the Districts Miguel Hidalgo and Cuauht�moc, the main sites of his protest, by double-digits. The PRD candidate did do somewhat worse in these areas than in the rest of the Federal District.
Pe�a Nieto?s performance in his home state wasn?t as impressive. He only took 43.2% of the vote in the State of Mexico and lost the places neighboring the Federal District.
Overall, L�pez Obrador won 41.2% to Pe�a Nieto?s 36.1%. V�zquez Mota lagged behind with only 17.9% of the vote.
Conclusions
Most pre-election polls placed Pe�a Nieto with big double-digit leads over his opponents. He generally polled a good deal above 40% of the vote.
Pe�a Nieto?s actual margin of 6.6% was a lot less impressive than these predictions. He underperformed the polls by quite a bit.
It?s very possible that the pollsters deceived themselves with the conventional wisdom (which was that Pe�a Nieto was crushing the opposition). On the other hand, perhaps a lot of voters genuinely changed their minds, taking a second look at a person who doesn?t read books. They might have been wary of giving back power to the PRI, which used to be a very corrupt party that stole elections.
If millions of Mexicans did in fact change their minds about Pe�a Nieto during the final days of the campaign, tens of millions more stayed faithful. Those mainly northern, mainly rural votes propelled him to the presidency.
--inoljt
P.S. Here are two good sources of data about the 2012 Mexican Presidential Election:
The Official Results ? Note that Enrique Pe�a Nieto and Andr�s Manuel L�pez Obrador ran under multiple party banneres.
To get Pe�a Nieto?s total vote, add the votes in three columns: the column under the PRI flag; the column under the VERDE flag; and the column under the PRI and VERDE flags together.
To get L�pez Obrador?s total vote, add together seven columns: the column under the PRD flag; the column under the PT flag; the column under the Movimiento Ciudadano flag; the column under the PRD, PT, and Movimiento Ciudadano flags together; the column under the PRD and PT flags together; the column under the PRD and Movimiento Ciudadano flags together; and finally the column under the PT and Movimiento Ciudadano flags together.
To get V�zquez Mota?s vote, just look at the numbers under the PAN column.
Google Elections ? This provides very interactive and detailed results. Unfortunately, the data is not fully updated. For instance, Google Elections shows Pe�a Nieto winning the state Veracruz with 98.94% reporting. He actually lost the state.
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