Tea Party Update: Rand Paul Has Modest Lead, Sharron Angle in a Tie

Status report on the two most prominent Tea Party-associated Senate candidates: Republican Rand Paul is holding a modest edge over Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky in two new polls, while the GOP's Sharron Angle is statistically tied with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada in one just-published survey.
An Ipsos/Reuters poll, conducted Aug. 13-15, had Paul ahead of Conway, Kentucky's Attorney General, by 45 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. The margin of error for that sample is 4.7 points. Among registered voters, the two are tied at 40 percent each.
In contrast to national polls, this one did not find the Republicans holding the same big "enthusiasm" edge. Fifty-nine percent of GOP voters said they had a high interest level in the race compared to 57 percent of Democrats.
A Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted Aug. 17, had Paul leading Conway among likely voters by 49 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Paul's margin over Conway has not changed much in Rasmussen match-ups dating back to June 1.
When Rasmussen counts in "leaners" -- those who initially expressed no preference but were asked in a follow-up question to make a choice -- Paul leads by 51 percent to 41 percent.
Paul is drawing 79 percent support from fellow Republicans while Conway gets 67 percent from Democrats. Paul attracts 26 percent of the Democratic vote which may not be surprising since Ipsos' Julia Clark, said in her analysis of the Ipsos/Reuters results, that "Democrats in Kentucky really act more like Republicans."
In the Nevada race, a Rasmussen poll conducted Aug. 16 had Angle tied with Reid at 47 percent each with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided. When leaners are included, Angle leads by 50 percent to 48 percent, still well within the 4 point margin of error.
Reid had been gaining ground and even passing Angle in some recent polls, thanks to his onslaught of ads attacking her as a fringe candidate, but Angle appears to have stabilized now that she is getting on the air herself with her own ads.
Both candidates are seen unfavorably. Fifty-five percent have an unfavorable view of Reid and 56 percent feel the same way about Angle. Both have very high numbers of voters who see them "very" unfavorably -- 44 percent for Reid and 39 percent for Angle.
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